The Toronto Raptors are one win away from its history-making accolade for winning its first title in franchise history, and Canada’s rich history of sports. Simply to put, Canada isn’t just home to hockey and baseball—the Raptors are prepping the country’s trophy case with the coveted Larry O’ Brien trophy in the mix.
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Coming off from disappointing postseason appearances due to LeBron’s dominance in the East, the Raptors made drastic changes in their roster and coaching staff—trading away the face of the North, DeMar DeRozan, for the defensive swingman, Kawhi Leonard; and firing Dwayne Casey on-the-spot as he won the Coach of the Year award. Fans and analysts questioned Ujiri’s decisions as it might jeopardize their chances in the East, even if LeBron is out in the West Coast. Still, the Raptors proved them wrong; fast forward today, they are one win away from dethroning a dynasty.
Not only that Game 5 will be held back at Scotiabank Arena—with a homecourt advantage being a big factor (plus Drake on the sideline could be a massive distraction), but there are other factors that made me believe they will close out the series on this game. Here’s why I got the Raptors in 5:
1) D-e-f-e-n-s-e
Should we elaborately emphasize how defense will be the biggest factor against a highly offensive team such as the Golden State Warriors?
During Game 4, they have managed to tame the offensive team in just 92 points, which is considered a scoring low for them compared to a staggering 115 total PPG average; and 96.8 points per 100 possessions was a playoff low since their stint with the Rockets (NBA.com). The match-ups that they have done are effective in limiting their scoring average—particularly with the VanVleet-Curry match-up which will be discussed a bit further.
Number of turnovers should be kept an eye on since it is a crucial stat that can create opportunities for the opposing team. For the Raps, they need to keep the Warriors on a steady ratio of turnovers as they average 14 during losses, but keep in mind that they should limit their turnovers as well—perhaps under the 10s could do it.
In simple numbers, they managed to rack up 8.75 SPG and 5.5 BPG in the previous 4 games. Although they may be sound numbers defensively and with that kind of consistency may manifest their prowess on the other end, sometimes metrics aren’t enough to gauge their defensive performance and instead, continue converting their intangibles during the game itself.
2) Role players
Raptors’ depth chart is going nuts right now as their role players are filling in the scoring board, and the stat sheet. Plus, their intangibles on the court manifested during the previous games. With Serge Ibaka being my favorite player to watch out this postseason, is going vintage mode against the Warriors. In Game 3, he managed to rack up 6 rejections—living up to his “Serge I-BlockYa” moniker, and in Game 4, became a key in their scoring run in the second half with 20 points in the game.
Fred VanVleet was the biggest story coming off the bench. He averaged 12.8 PPG, but the biggest contribution he has done during the Finals is defending Steph—there was a game where he made him shoot 1 out of 6 from the field in 33 possessions he defended Curry. Defending the star player efficiently is key for their success.
3) Lead on traditional categories
Statistically speaking, the Raptors are pretty sound in the series. In simple statistics, they are leading them in every game in terms of FG%, rebounds, and FT%.
Their consistency on the field, averaging 45% on 339 shot attempts, is a solid help to meet their scoring ends against a highly offensive team. Plus, the advantage on the boards is helpful to create either new possessions, or second-chance points; they have lead the Warriors in total offensive boards with 15-6 on Game 2, and 13-5 on Game 3, and if they keep up the numbers on the offensive glass, they can create numerous opportunities for them to add points on the board.
On the charity stripe, they managed to rack up 90% on 103 shot attempts so far, which gives them a bulk of scoring assistance. With that kind of consistency, points will just keep raining on the scoreboard.
4) Be aggressive on attack
Speaking of their 90% FT percentage, in order to go to the line often, they have to be aggressive during their offensive possessions. They need to capitalize on this statistic to deliver more points. Kyle Lowry should be more aggressive on the drive; with this and his body build, he can ram his way through the paint and play smart to draw contact. Kawhi should continue dropping the FT bombs to secure them easy points.
5) Danny Green should regain his shooting touch
Let’s face it, he got the great wide open looks from distance, but Game 4 was a different story for him as he managed to make one in the 3rd quarter, and averaged 14.3% from deep. He needs to bring the numbers back to the 40s to 50s for a consistent and stable offense. The Raptors could not keep on solely relying on Kawhi’s efficiency because the stingy defense will adjust to keep Kawhi on the outside block for tougher looks; and even force Pascal for uglier shots outside since he only chucked up made threes during Game 1. With that being said, forcing them outside means Green should step up once again to help carry the load on the scoring end.
These five keys may close out the deal for the 6ix to win its first championship, and leave Vancouver jealous—wanting the Grizzlies to be back in the North. Although chances of KD returning may still be vague, the Raptors should not stay too comfy with their home advantage—just ask 2016 Curry how that happened.
Credits to NBA.com, and ESPN.com for the metric statistics provided
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