Before anything else, I would like to say NO—Ben Simmons is not on the list. Only Brian Scalabrine could win the Rookie of the Year award… twice! Well okay jokes aside, we are almost nearing the postseason, and so far, we are not only keeping an eye to the MVP race between Giannis, PG, and The Beard, but this rookie class is also interesting and talent-stacked too—with jaw-dropping comparisons of rookies to one of the greats in the game in terms of play style and statistics.
During the early part of the season, it was safe to say that Luka was really ahead of the pack. But as the postseason is upon us, there are some names catching up to the prospective candidates for ROTY 2019. Without further ado, let’s check out the top 5 names in my book to be the NBA’s Rookie of the Year.
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1) Luka Doncic
Yep, Luka is still in sight to win the award. The keys to the Mavs offense have been given to the young swingman out of Slovenia. In his last 62 games, man his statline is nuts so far (given he’s a rookie): 21.1 PTS, 7.4 REB, 5.6 AST, and his Player Impact Estimate is near the league average with 14.9. Yep, the numbers don’t lie. His usage rate steadily increases and at this moment, he has 28.7 under his belt, and we could see him being the go-to option as the season goes by before we could see him tandem up with Kristaps (Oh man! Can’t wait for that European tandem take Dallas by storm!).
To establish his name even further in the ROTY race, asides from the fact that he was the first rookie to notch up multiple triple-doubles in their class, look once again to the fundamental stats—according to The Ringer, there have only been three rookies in the entire duration of the league who averaged 20+ points, 6+ rebounds, and 5+ assists. Yes, he is one of the three—alongside these players you may be familiar with… the other two are just OSCAR ROBERTSON and MICHAEL JORDAN; yes, he is in ranks stats wise with the OG Triple-Double Machine, and the famous Jumpman on your kicks! Damn, no wonder he is the Wunderkind!
His playing style relies on his mastering the fundamentals of passing, running the pick-and-roll—which allows him to continue creating shots for the team, his control of the pace during the game, and using his size, making him an effective swingman. He may not have the flashiest of dunks or athleticism, don’t let it fool you ’cause he’ll just dazzle you with passes and shot fakes to lure you onto him. Given that he had professional experience already back with Real Madrid (if you’re going to say that the European basketball scene is nothing compared to the NBA, dammit you better play there and when you average 10 points a game, I’ll take it then), he really utilized his experience well. And not to mention, he’s pretty scary from deep; shooting above the 30s can do more harm, and sometimes, he’ll add a cold-blooded touch of a stepback long bomb with the clock winding down (yup, who says his threes need lots of polishing, when he can hit em better than what you expect).
Although he may have great upsides in his game, his lack of athleticism tolls his game, like lateral movement on the court, and he just needs to practice more on his creativity when attacking the rim—and heck it would help him get more charity shots the team needs even if he may be on pace to be one. Speaking of charity shots, his free throw percentage is kinda… meh—with 72% on his traditional split, he needs to improve that more often. He hasn’t fully utilized his body assets to the defensive end, yeah he’s good on off-the-ball defensive situations as the content creators of The Ringer would notice it, but I would agree with them that once he is beat by his opponent one-on-one during a drive, yeah, he’s beat. But don’t let these sour you away, MFFLs, I would say that Luka is still young (I mean at the edge before the new millennium kind of kid), and his upsides can be a force to be reckoned with—what about in the upcoming years? This calf is taking the league by storm. Just you wait for the Calf-Unicorn tandem!
2) DeAndre Ayton
The Bahamian big man is still under the radar to win the award. Drawing comparisons from greats like Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, and a younger Shaquille O’Neal, he caught a lot of media attention as he played for the Arizona Wildcats, and his game continues to translate in the pros.
He is living up to his number one overall selection, as he is the go-to big man for the Phoenix Suns—his 20.6 usage rate says it. Speaking of statistics, he has been on a roll on offense—averaging nearly 17 points a game; his scoring is something to watch out because he can let it rip anywhere—inside or outside the paint, you name it. He uses his physical attributes to his advantage as he manages to use his 7-foot, 250 pound frame inside the paint to get a board (10.3 RPG), and a clean post move, with some Hakeem shake right there to lure his opponents. Not only is his frame really scary for a big man, but his added quickness and speed on the court makes him a fast giant; he uses it in gaining position right off the bat, uses it in pick-and-roll offense, and even helps quick transition on the court. He may not rack up a lot of blocks (0.9 BPG as of late), but he makes sure to bother a lot of shots while using his big frame in the mix.
Although he might be a scary big man, he still has weaknesses too. He usually gets lost when it comes to guarding the pick-and-roll, and once he is forced to switch up on a guard, well let’s say James Harden, he’ll really have a hard time; he just needs to hone his defensive awareness, especially in this modern era of the league where he cannot only rely on his traditional big man kind of play. Also, he still has a lot of potential in him, and that could be a bad thing in the long run if ever it is not tapped to the fullest; a great suggestion for that is to check the Suns’ roster. So far, they are great in depth (so stacked in fact) —with Devin Booker, TJ Warren, Kelly Oubre, and Josh Jackson. All they need is a true point guard who can connect well with DeAndre in order to utilize his attributes more often than before. Maybe take notes from Al Horford.
He’ll be a great big man soon enough since he has the good speed to keep up with shifty players. He just needs to cover well the zones when he is on defense. Stats wise, he’s on pace to be the ROTY with a double-double figure, but with Luka in the mix, the race for him just gets real tougher, but still in sight.
3) Trae Young
Scouts saw him as the second coming of Stephen Curry due to his long trigger from deep—like way long, dude! Back in his college days, his in-game statline was insane—I mean he just pulled off 43 points and 7 assists in a collegiate game for the Oklahoma Sooners; with 27.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 8.7 APG back in college, NBA scouts were drooling to get him in the lottery.
Drafted 5th by the Dallas Mavericks (but traded right away in exchange for Luka), Hawks sought him as a go-to scoring option due to his Curry-esque skill set. He may have a rough start in the league, he managed to pick up the pace—with 18.3 PPG and shooting at 40% from the field (with 33% from deep), he is proving to be a player not to be messed with on the court. He also has good court vision, and can facilitate plays for the team—managing to have 7.8 APG as of late, with only under 4 turnovers per game (decent ratio, but worrysome due to most of his TOs are from unnecessary passing). You can really see that his usage rate of 27.1% is good enough for a rookie scoring option, as he plays almost 31 minutes a night; better expect to be a pest in the defensive end when you face the Hawks.
His offensive style of play is kind of trigger-happy so to speak, but if it works, just go with it; yet his balanced skill set of scoring and playmaking is something not to be disregarded of. Although his size will take a toll on him during defensive threats, he will still find ways to help the team with his other teammates ready to fill in the scene, just needs to hone it a bit better when it comes to overall offensive awareness even if he may have the knacks for it because sometimes let’s face it, his decision in driving through the basket is kind of worrying, and in the assessment from The Ringer, sometimes when he over penetrates in offense, he would suddenly have a lapse like being trapped in tight situations. The worrying downside of his play is his defense—just lackadaisical. Once he bumps into screens, it really tolls on him to regain position on defense, and his overall awareness on the other side is not polished for a good defender.
Still, Trae is catching up to be the ROTY. Despite his defensive lapses, he is still young. He can learn steadily throughout his career when it comes to handling the perimeter on defense, especially with his attributes like speed and focus on the on-ball situation. Once he does that, he is a force to be reckoned with on both sides of the long range mark. What I am surprised of is his long range prowess, as he steadily increased his 3PT made percentage from the low 20s to the good 30s, and he gets smarter and smarter to hit shots from deep, no matter how deep it is. The confidence of Trae is something to be aspired of, especially when he chucks up a long one, or goes strong to the hoop. Give him better talent around the team, and he will thrive as a stunning point guard of the future! He is indeed ROTY worthy, and a sure ballot 1st Team All-Rookie this season.
4) Marvin Bagley III
The Blue Devil was drafted 2nd overall by the Sacramento Kings. He was one of the sought after recruits during his collegiate days, along with DeAndre Ayton, and Michael Porter, Jr. His build like KD was something scouts were pretty interested in, plus his play style of face-up basketball is just explosive as he dominates the paint with great athleticism. His shooting is getting polished through time, as he averages 51% from the field, and his 3PT game is at a steady 26%.
He knows to position well when grabbing a board, and he utilizes his long wing span to grab difficult-to-reach passes. The team relies on him on the defensive end as well, as he averages a block per game. With his size and skill set, he is indeed a great pick up for the 4-spot in this era of fast-paced basketball. I would suggest that he polish his game in the wing as well for added offensive firepower. He could take notes from Brandon Ingram when it comes to craftiness to the rim (the Duke connection). With around 2+ offensive rebounds per game, he should maximize it for second chance buckets since he has the knacks to do so.
Still, Bagley is known to be a bit of a terror in defense, especially during help D—with a 108.6 defensive rating, he can be a threat to the opposing players. He is good in covering the defensive zones, and does not have much issue to switching up to different positions.
Mobility, length, and strength are his keys to him for growing as a player. Although he is still polishing that shooting, he must continue to learn adapting in quick scenarios whenever he holds the ball. Good thing, Sacramento has a lot of good young players—from Bogdan, De’Aaron, and Buddy, he could kick out the ball to them in tight situations. He could maximize his strengths in the pick-and-roll game, with Fox leading the surge. Bagley can be a great all-around player, but he needs to be utilized well by the coaching with all the depth they have right now in their roster.
He is a dark horse player who contributes to the success of the Kings recently, and no wonder, when Bagley continues to maximize what he has right now, he will tear both ends of the court. Time will come, he will be one of the best players among their class, but as ROTY, he may not have the award, but bigger opportunities are there awaiting for him.
5) Jaren Jackson, Jr.
I’m having a pretty hard time to see who could be a better option between Jaren and Collin. Still, I opted for Jaren Jackson, the rookie out of Michigan State University, for the reason of being a well-balanced player.
The discrepancy between his offensive and defensive ratings is just minimal (100.5 OFF RTG; 102.4 DEF RTG). He currently has 13.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, AND A PIE of 10, which makes him more impactful to the team’s success compared to Sexton’s 6.5. He has been shooting well at 51%, and he even has a staggering 36% from deep out of 2 attempts per game. Seeing the statline, his offensive prowess is pretty balanced as he can go inside the painted area, go mid, or even shoot a long one when needed to. You can rely on him on wide open shots as well. His defense is also good, averaging 1.4 BPG, and almost a steal per game shows that he can be a player good at both ends.
What stands out to him as well is his good mobility—he has good footwork, and his speed is reliable to blow by defenders while driving to the basket. With these skill sets, he is a terror in lob passes as he can finish them with ease. According to Draft Express, he is a good finisher as well with both hands, which puts him in an advantage when it comes to pressure inside the paint.
Still, he has to work on gaining boards, as he cannot maximize his body frame in the rebounding category, just averaging around 4 a game. He still needs to gain more physicality to be able to make him an unstoppable force inside—they cannot rely solely on Valanciunas or Noah inside the painted area for rebounds.
Mike Conley expressed how much he likes the play style of Jackson, and that would make them a scary tandem in the future. Jaren has the tools to be a great all-around player; although strength may be an issue for him, his overall play style is something to be admired of, and although the race is pretty much not for him in the ROTY category, he might be the key player needed by the Grizzlies in the long run. I can see a better version of ZBo for them.
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Well these are some of my thoughts on who are the top 5 prospects for the NBA’s Rookie of the Year campaign. Although it might be clear for Luka to win it, let’s not forget these players who are just talented as well and deserving of the award; just got a bit unlucky because of him.
Special thanks to The Ringer, NBA.com, and Draft Express for the statistics, and the notes for analyzing their career so far.
Trifecta 